Drones age changed rules of war

Over the past 12 months, drone strikes have shifted the trajectory of conflict from Yemen and Libya to the Caucasus. Looking at some of the most prolific powers in the drone world, such as Iran and Turkey, it is clear that the new era of drones has changed the rules of war, Washington Post reported.

A total of 102 countries have programs to develop and produce military drones. Some governments use the power and prestige of unmanned aerial vehicles to project national interests; others use drones to act outright, pursuing political goals remotely. And at least 57 armed groups are capable of launching drones.

Iran develops sophisticated drone systems

Drones are a valuable tool in the Iranian arsenal. The Iranian drone program has been complemented by sophisticated self-made drones that it supplies to regional allies. General Qassem Soleimani allegedly orchestrated the delivery of drones to Iran, adopting a strategy to ensure that other governments and groups in the region use the same or similar drones. This tactic makes it nearly impossible to determine who delivered the killing blow to the drones, and therefore who should be held accountable.

Houthi rebels in Yemen exemplify this drone denial strategy. In 2019 and 2020, the Houthis used Iran-supplied drones to assassinate, disrupt lucrative oil refining, and strike cities in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Following drone attacks in September 2019 on Aramco’s oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the international community has had a particularly hard time finding those responsible. The Houthis initially announced the attack and used Iran-supplied technology to strike. However, conflicting evidence suggests Iran is directly responsible. This plausible denial, and the comfortable confusion that followed, has hampered the international community’s efforts to bring those responsible to justice.

Turkey’s foreign policy increasingly relies on drones

Turkey has become one of the most active drone users in the world, relying heavily on them to showcase its prestige and power. The workhorse of the Turkish Armed Forces is the Bayraktar TB2 – a combat drone developed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s son-in-law Selcuk Bayraktar. These drones have played a key role in Erdogan’s ambitious plans to spread Turkish power in the region and support key allies.

In recent months, Turkey has deployed drones in Syria, northern Iraq, and the Caucasus – and has used drones to defend its oil claims in the Mediterranean. Turkey also intervened in the war in Libya using its drones in what one UN official called the largest drone war in the world.

Thanks to this success, Turkey was also involved in another major conflict in 2020. While Armenia and Azerbaijan fought for air supremacy over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in the South Caucasus, Turkey supported the Azerbaijani military. In December, Armenia agreed to surrender part of the disputed territory.

What does the future hold?

The actions of Iran and Turkey symbolize a broader trend in international conflict: countries increasingly rely on drones. This trend is likely to intensify as China and the US continue to sell drones to their allies.

Trump has tried to counter the influence of China’s drones by advocating weakening U.S. regulations on drone exports. In the final weeks of his presidency, Trump has pushed for the sale of drones to key allies such as Morocco, the UAE, and Taiwan.

However, these sales can backfire. As drones change the scale and rules of the modern battlefield, drone misuse will become increasingly likely, either due to more attacks without a clear culprit or from mid-sized forces that are determined to engage in more serious conflict. It may be too early to tell if President Biden will continue to sell and deploy drones in the same way Trump did. But as more governments and nongovernmental groups acquire high-tech drones, it will become easier to be an engaged and distant participant in conflicts that play out in an increasingly cloudy and congested sky.

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